What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great’s lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the ‘experts’, “The Black Swan” shows us how to stop trying to predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty.
Black Swan: Impact of Highly Improbable
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What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great’s lovers tell us about probability? And, why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they’re impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the ‘experts’, “The Black Swan” shows us how to stop trying to predict everything – and take advantage of uncertainty.
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Вес | 358 г |
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Габариты | 22 × 15 × 2.54 см |
Издательство | |
Переплет | |
Автор | |
Стандарт | 1000 |
Год выпуска | |
Количество страниц | 446 |
SKU | 479793 |